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Monday, October 3, 2011
FiveThirtyEight: The Price of Running Late, Part I
A qualitative look at how nine candidates since 1980 did after entering the presidential race substantially later than most others in their field.
Gay marriage defeat leaves couples crestfallen
Ken Goodman's fondest wish was to return to Silver Spring with the man he has been with for 15 years and get married in front of his childhood friends and his parents.
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Sunday, October 2, 2011
PA-Pres: Obama keeps slight edge in key battleground, voters uneasy about electoral college shift
Pennsylvania is tight, but still leans to Obama
Pennsylvania is a state that has (justifiably) received a lot of attention in recent weeks, as it relates to the 2012 presidential election. This is something of a given, considering how the state's trove of electoral votes has shown every sign of being a toss-up between the president and whomever emerges as his Republican foe.
A new Quinnipiac poll, released earlier in the week, indeed suggests that President Obama would be narrowly favored to win statewide, if the election were held today.
Quinnipiac. 9/21-26. Registered voters. MoE 2.7% (8/2 results)
Barack Obama (D): 45 (42)
Mitt Romney (R): 43 (44)Barack Obama (D): 46 (45)
Rick Perry (R): 40 (39)Barack Obama (D): 45 (45)
Rick Santorum (R): 42 (43)
Adding to the recent attention bestowed upon the Keystone State was the news two weeks ago that the Pennsylvania GOP legislative leadership was flirting with a scheme to change the way electoral votes were awarded in the state, going from the winner-take-all approach utilized in 48 states and the District of Columbia to a district-by-district approach that would siphon a number of electoral votes away from the Democrats, assuming they won statewide.
The narrow margins here underscore why, for the Pennsylvania GOP, the electoral college gambit was always a calculated risk. While Democrats have carried the state in every presidential election since 1992, the president's polling numbers here have been pretty shaky throughout the 2012 cycle. His present job approval numbers in the state stand at just 43/54, which is just a point off his all-time low. A move designed to strip a handful of electoral votes away from the Democrats could, with a shift of just a handful of voters, actually deny the GOP a handful of electoral votes.
What's more, the bill itself is not a popular proposal. While support or disapproval generally falls along party lines, opponents to the bill outnumber supporters by a 52-40 margin. A strong majority, rightly, see it as an effort by legislative Republicans to aid their presidential nominee, rather than reflective of the will of the people. So, aside from the practical considerations, the GOP would have to expend a good amount of political capital, especially since a growing number of their GOP brethren are on the record opposing the move.
Meanwhile, in other Pennsylvania campaign data, the GOP presidential primary is still wildly undefined. The leading candidate, Mitt Romney, is still in the teens (18 percent), narrowly ahead of Rick Perry (16 percent) and semi-homeboy Rick Santorum (12 percent). Both Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, in double digits in August, have seen their support recede as Perry's has grown.
Downballot, as Republicans still search for a first-tier opponent to freshman Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, the Q poll indicates that he might be a pretty tough target. His job approval continues to be above average (46/30, a bit better than GOP Senate mate Pat Toomey's 43/32), and he leads a generic Republican challenger by a pretty solid 50-31 margin.
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Obama economic adviser adopts classroom style to explain policies
In the fall, with the administration struggling to convince Americans its economic strategy was working, the White House's new media team wanted to try an old-school idea: an adviser in front of a board explaining its policy ideas, like in a classroom.
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Chicago News Cooperative: Looking for Savings, Quinn Has a Good Idea
Gov. Pat Quinn proposes to close the Illinois Youth Center, part of the state?s juvenile justice system, to save money, and that is not a bad move.
Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=a3b22527451e19d0c7e821d44c51dd33
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Is Monstrously Obese Chris Christie Even Too Fat For Republican Voters?
Republicans are a large bunch, if you get what we mean. When Teabaggers sit around the house, they literally sit around the 3,800-square-foot foreclosed tract house, in Florida. The latest advances in physics are repeatedly tested by the makers of Hoverounds and Rascals, as the wee scooters are expected to carry ever heavier loads. So [...]
Source: http://feeds.wonkette.com/click.phdo?i=1acd334be63adba74649810355b514f2
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