Pennsylvania is a state that has (justifiably) received a lot of attention in recent weeks, as it relates to the 2012 presidential election. This is something of a given, considering how the state's trove of electoral votes has shown every sign of being a toss-up between the president and whomever emerges as his Republican foe.
A new Quinnipiac poll, released earlier in the week, indeed suggests that President Obama would be narrowly favored to win statewide, if the election were held today.
Quinnipiac. 9/21-26. Registered voters. MoE 2.7% (8/2 results)
Barack Obama (D): 45 (42)
Mitt Romney (R): 43 (44)Barack Obama (D): 46 (45)
Rick Perry (R): 40 (39)Barack Obama (D): 45 (45)
Rick Santorum (R): 42 (43)
Adding to the recent attention bestowed upon the Keystone State was the news two weeks ago that the Pennsylvania GOP legislative leadership was flirting with a scheme to change the way electoral votes were awarded in the state, going from the winner-take-all approach utilized in 48 states and the District of Columbia to a district-by-district approach that would siphon a number of electoral votes away from the Democrats, assuming they won statewide.
The narrow margins here underscore why, for the Pennsylvania GOP, the electoral college gambit was always a calculated risk. While Democrats have carried the state in every presidential election since 1992, the president's polling numbers here have been pretty shaky throughout the 2012 cycle. His present job approval numbers in the state stand at just 43/54, which is just a point off his all-time low. A move designed to strip a handful of electoral votes away from the Democrats could, with a shift of just a handful of voters, actually deny the GOP a handful of electoral votes.
What's more, the bill itself is not a popular proposal. While support or disapproval generally falls along party lines, opponents to the bill outnumber supporters by a 52-40 margin. A strong majority, rightly, see it as an effort by legislative Republicans to aid their presidential nominee, rather than reflective of the will of the people. So, aside from the practical considerations, the GOP would have to expend a good amount of political capital, especially since a growing number of their GOP brethren are on the record opposing the move.
Meanwhile, in other Pennsylvania campaign data, the GOP presidential primary is still wildly undefined. The leading candidate, Mitt Romney, is still in the teens (18 percent), narrowly ahead of Rick Perry (16 percent) and semi-homeboy Rick Santorum (12 percent). Both Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, in double digits in August, have seen their support recede as Perry's has grown.
Downballot, as Republicans still search for a first-tier opponent to freshman Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, the Q poll indicates that he might be a pretty tough target. His job approval continues to be above average (46/30, a bit better than GOP Senate mate Pat Toomey's 43/32), and he leads a generic Republican challenger by a pretty solid 50-31 margin.
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