CA-36 liveblog thread #2

We're on to thread #2. For the first CA-36 liveblog thread, click here.

Results: CA (SoS) | CA (AP) | CA (L.A. Registrar)

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 9:58 PM PT: At long last. 20 precincts just came in (so 10% is now reporting). And the margin is still... 54-46.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:09 PM PT (Steve Singiser): So, we have our first precinct tallies in. Hahn picked up 1371 votes, while Huey picked up 1278 votes. About a 52-48 split. Now, of course, there is an enormous caveat--we don't have any clue as to where these precincts are located. If it is Manhattan Beach, El Segundo, or Torrance, that's bad news for Huey, since he'd need to win there to win. If it is Venice, Huey would be doing a Snoopy Dance right now.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:25 PM PT (Steve Singiser): And, just like that, we have doubled our precincts in (up to 21% in), and Janice Hahn extends her lead over Republican Craig Huey. The margin is now almost eleven points: Hahn leads with 55.4%.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:27 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Quite clearly, this was big Hahn country that just got tallied: she picked up 2085 votes, while Huey nabbed only 673 votes. More than three-quarters of the vote went to the Democrat in that last batch of precincts.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:44 PM PT (Steve Singiser): For those speculating about total turnout, it is worth noting that the precincts that have reported thus far averaged about 115 votes per precinct. With just over 200 precincts left to be counted, we are probably looking at roughly 23,000 votes to go, for a total in the neighborhood of 65-70K.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:45 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Up to 29% of precincts reporting, and Hahn's margin keeps growing. She now leads 56-44.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:48 PM PT (Steve Singiser): One has to assume that, once again, these ballots are coming from Hahn strongholds. With 22 new precincts tallied, Hahn added another 900 votes to her lead, carrying the precincts by a 73-27 margin.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 10:59 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Expecting another update at the top of the hour.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:03 PM PT (Steve Singiser): ...And there we have it: 48% of precincts reporting. Janice Hahn continues to pad her lead over Craig Huey. 57-43 Hahn, a margin of over 7000 votes.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:06 PM PT (Steve Singiser): For what it's worth, I am starting to think that this is not a matter of just Hahn precincts getting tallied. I am starting to think she just dropped the hammer on Huey in the walk-up vote today. In the VBM/Early votes, Hahn led 54-46. With the 14,000 precinct votes tallied today, Hahn has a 64-36 lead over Huey.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:15 PM PT (Steve Singiser): As we await the next update (which may well put the cap on this race, as far as AP is concerned), it has to be noted that the Democrats clearly dominated GOTV today. Remember that in the primary, Bowen actually led Huey among the early vote/VBM tallies. Huey actually pulled ahead on Election Day. Today, the converse was true, and in a big way.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:22 PM PT (Steve Singiser): According to the county registrar (via Twitter), looks like we will have all the votes tallied in the next hour. All precincts have arrived at HQ in Norwalk.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:24 PM PT (Steve Singiser): A big chunk of precincts reporting, and it is safe to say the Huey strongholds have reported en masse. The margin is back to 54-46, a lead for Hahn of roughly 5500 votes. 79% of precincts are now in.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:28 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Interesting to see how the votes have been tallied. The guess here is a real big geographic schism in the district. The first 15,000 precinct votes tallied broke 64-36 Hahn. The most recent precinct dump (also around 15,000 votes) broke 56-44 Huey. The net? Right back where we started: 54-46 Hahn.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:36 PM PT (Steve Singiser): ...And with that, all precincts are now reporting. Congratulations to Janice Hahn, who appears to have won a 55-45 victory over Republican Craig Huey. All precincts are reporting, though there will be a number of absentees cast late. Waiting to get word on how many might still be out there. The margin, as it stands, is 6900 votes.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:40 PM PT (Steve Singiser): According to a tweet from Dave Catanese, Craig Huey is in the process of conceding to Janice Hahn as we speak. The margin stands at 9.12%.

Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 11:47 PM PT (Steve Singiser): That's the ballgame, fans. AP has now called the race for Janice Hahn. Congratulations to her. Congratulations are also in order for our polling partners at PPP. They called the race, once again, and once again they got it right down to the percentage: off by just 1.2%. They also forecast, correctly, a near-even split between absentee/early voters and election day turnout. The final tally was 52-48 in favor of the absentee/early voters. A standout performance by them yet again. We here at Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections hope you enjoyed the coverage, and for more than just the wave of favorable outcomes we enjoyed tonight. Good night!

Source: http://feeds.dailykos.com/~r/dailykos/index/~3/6TKtFFvOlDc/-CA-36-liveblog-thread-

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