arberagl01: North Carolina Redistricting: Now it's the GOP's turn

In the wake of the legislative elections of 2010, two things seemed pretty clear about redistricting: that Illinois was going to be our best state for redistricting, in that it was a previous Republican gerrymander of a large state where now the Dems controlled the trifecta, and that North Carolina was going to be our worst state, in that it was a previous Democratic gerrymander of a large state with the Republicans now in control -- although the Democrats still control the governorship in North Carolina, it's an unusual state in that she has no veto power over the redistricting process. (In fact, we've been asking on Twitter for suggestions on what to call North Carolina, as a mirror to our coinage of "Redistmas" for the huge gift that Illinois provided us. "Redoomsday," "Redistpocalypse," "Redistaster," and "RD-Day" are all witty and appropriate suggestions we've received.)

Well, that day of reckoning has arrived, and, as expected, local Republicans made the most of their opportunities, with a map that will provide GOP gains in the two to four-seat range, probably at the higher end of that range. Most of the Democrats in swing seats in North Carolina managed to survive 2010, but the 2012 map makes their paths much harder; there really aren't swing seats anymore, as Brad Miller, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler, and Larry Kissell all find themselves in districts that went for John McCain with at least 55% of the vote (which, ballparking it, would mean a PVI of around R+8 or worse). In other words: there are three Dem seats that are all 70% Obama or better, and 10 GOP seats that are all 55% McCain or worse.

This was accomplished by maximally packing Democratic areas into three safely Democratic seats: the two VRA seats of NC-01 (G.K. Butterfield, in the rural eastern lowlands) and NC-12 (Mel Watt, reaching wormlike from Charlotte to Greensboro), and another seat (David Price's NC-04) that puts every Democrat in the Research Triangle area into one district -- instead of spread out among three districts (also NC-02 and NC-13) like before. In fact, the 4th reaches down to grab Fayetteville for good measure, creating a strangely Italy-shaped district. This Dem-packing also serves to save freshman GOPer Renee Elmers in NC-02, the only Republican who would have been vulnerable under the existing map, by giving her turf in the Raleigh area to Butterfield and Price.

The two Dems who seem likeliest to get their walking papers right away are Miller, who sees his Dem-leaning district turned dark red by having the African-American part of Greensboro given to the 12th. Kissell is the other one; he used to have a light-red district with an arm reaching straight into Charlotte but now doesn't even have one iota of Mecklenburg County, leaving him just exurbs and rural counties. [UPDATE: Oops, an eagle-eyed spotter points out it does go into Mecklenburg; it looks like it's hidden behind that "12" in the image.]

Shuler and McIntyre, hardcore Blue Dogs both, were good matches for their more conservative districts, but they find their districts made even more conservative, with McIntyre's NC-07 being divested of not just Fayetteville but also part of his Dem-friendly home turf of Robeson County (although his house apparently stays in the 7th), and with Shuler's NC-11 losing much of the college town of Asheville, the lone island of blue in his otherwise red district. Shuler, in fact, gets the most conservative seat of any of the 13, at 58% McCain. Even if McIntyre or Shuler were able to survive the 2012 elections, I can't see holding onto these seats if they become open later -- and the 11th may become open sooner rather than later, if rumors about Shuler moving to take the Athletic Director position at Univ. of Tennessee are any indication. (In fact, with Dan Boren hitting the trail and Jim Matheson eyeing a statewide bit, I'm wondering if the number of real core Blue Dogs will be down to single digits in the next House.)

The Rothenburg Report has names of some potential Republicans we might see running in these new seats:

? NC-07: '10 loser Ilario Pantano (already running again)
? NC-08: state Rep. Jerry Dockham
? NC-11: Hendersonville DA Jeff Hunt
? NC-13: former US Att'y George Holding, Wake Co. Commissioner Paul Noble, weirdo Vernon Robinson

Local political expert John Davis is also out with a thorough analysis of the changes to each seat.

UPDATE (David): ~~Via a group called the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation, we have McCain numbers (PDF) for the old and new districts (hat-tip: Aaron Blake):~~

Nuts to that. We have far, far better information available, thanks to a great link by user twohundertseventy. I've compiled all of NC's spreadsheets into a single file (click here) ? there's tons of data for each district. I've also pulled out the new Kerry and Obama numbers, as well as the old ones. Check it out:

CD	Incumbent	Party	Obama Old	McCain Old	Obama New	McCain New	Kerry Old	Bush Old	Kerry New	Bush New
NC-01	Butterfield	(D)	62	37	68	31	57	42	61	39
NC-02	Ellmers	(R)	52	47	44	56	46	54	36	64
NC-03	Jones	(R)	38	61	43	56	32	68	39	61
NC-04	Price	(D)	63	36	71	28	55	44	61	39
NC-05	Foxx	(R)	38	61	42	57	33	66	34	65
NC-06	Coble	(R)	36	63	44	55	30	69	37	63
NC-07	McIntyre	(D)	47	52	44	55	44	56	40	59
NC-08	Kissell	(D)	53	47	44	55	45	54	38	62
NC-09	Myrick	(R)	45	55	44	55	36	63	35	65
NC-10	McHenry	(R)	36	63	42	57	33	67	36	64
NC-11	Shuler	(D)	47	52	41	58	43	57	36	64
NC-12	Watt	(D)	70	29	78	22	63	37	69	31
NC-13	Miller	(D)	59	40	43	56	52	47	36	63

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