a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 402,000. The 4-week moving average was 405,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 408,250.
This represents a four-month low for initial claims; the continuing drop in the four-week average reflects the fact that this week's relatively low initial unemployment claims are not an isolated occurrence. And we had a relatively good jobs report last week, so muted yay.
However, the Associated Press coverage reminds us why we should be careful with economic reporting, trumpeting this as the first time in four months that initial claims have been below 400,000. Which is not untrue, in its way?but two weeks ago the report was 398,000 claims. That was subsequently revised upward to 401,000. There's no question that 395,000 is better news than we've become accustomed to hearing, and it may stay below the magical 400,000 mark even after revision, but when numbers flirt around a level seen as a milestone, the line between celebration and non-news can be a fine one. In the long term, we need better:
Economists say both initial claims and the four-week average need to drop close to 350,000 to signal a sustainable improvement in the labor market.
By all means, cheer for reports that are better rather than worse. But let's not forget how far we are from non-emergency unemployment levels.
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